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Research Article: Development and validation of a predictive model for COPD: a multicenter study

Date Published: 2025-09-09

Abstract:
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the third leading cause of death globally and a major public health issue in China. This study aims to develop a COPD predictive model and conduct risk stratification for key indicators not included. We collected data from inpatients and outpatients with COPD and non-COPD who were hospitalized between January 2018 and December 2022 at three different hospitals. The data were divided into a training set and an internal validation set, using logistic regression to build a COPD predictive model and perform internal validation. External validation of the model was performed using data from two additional units for the period November 2019 to June 2022. A total of 1,056 cases were included: 740 in the training set, 316 in the internal validation set, and 408 in the external validation set. Six risk factors were identified: age (OR?=?1.05, 95% CI: 1.02–1.08), second-hand smoke exposure (OR?=?8.27, 95% CI: 2.70–25.34), cough (OR?=?23.52, 95% CI: 12.64–43.77), “occasional episodes of wheezing that are mild and do not interfere with sleep or activity” (OR?=?6.06, 95% CI: 2.59–14.19), “bouts of wheezing that worsen with movement” (OR?=?21.40, 95%CI: 10.32–44.37), and “persistent episodes of wheezing, occurring at rest, unable to lie down” (OR?=?10.97, 95% CI: 1.02–118.28). The predictive model equation was: y?=??5.920?+?0.047 (age)?+?2.113 (smoke exposure)?+?3.158 (cough)?+?1.801 (wheezing 1)?+?3.063 (wheezing 2)?+?2.396 (wheezing 3). The model achieved 94.1% accuracy, 98.5% sensitivity, and 89.2% specificity, with an AUC of 0.976 (internal) and 0.691 (external). The critical cut-off value was 0.258. We have successfully developed a model for the diagnosis of COPD. The predictive model equation was: y?=??5.920?+?0.047 (age)?+?2.113 (smoke exposure)?+?3.158 (cough)?+?1.801 (wheezing 1)?+?3.063 (wheezing 2)?+?2.396 (wheezing 3).

Introduction:
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the third leading cause of death globally and a major public health issue in China. This study aims to develop a COPD predictive model and conduct risk stratification for key indicators not included.

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